NOAA Predicts Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid Strengthening El Niño
NOAA Predicts Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid Strengthening El Niño
US · Published Aug 12, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, maintaining a 75% likelihood of below-normal activity.
This prediction aligns with its initial May outlook, which estimated a 55% chance of below-normal activity.

Impact & Risks

The below-normal hurricane season forecast is good news for coastal communities in the Atlantic basin, as fewer storms reduce the risk of widespread damage. However, the two named storms so far, Arthur and Bertha, have already caused localized impacts, including record rainfall and tornadoes in the Gulf region. Oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico have also experienced production losses due to these storms. While El Niño is expected to limit Atlantic activity, it may enhance storm development in the Pacific, posing risks to those regions. Residents in hurricane-prone areas should remain vigilant as the season progresses.

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